Apostol Apostolov, EU policy correspondent
De Wever’s potential resignation could leave key EU decisions and strategic energy projects in limbo, just as Brussels prepares for another crucial European Council.
Belgium is on the brink of a political crisis whose consequences could extend far beyond its national borders. After months of failed negotiations between Bart De Wever’s N-VA party and the other four parties in the governing coalition, no agreement has been reached on the parameters of the new budget. Coalition partners have made it clear that they cannot support the proposed financial framework. As a result, the prime minister found himself at the royal palace, presenting King Philippe with his letter of resignation.
Expectations of early parliamentary elections, however, proved unfounded. The monarch signalled that the government would not be allowed to fall so easily, called for another meeting between political leaders and made clear that only after that meeting could the possibility of a caretaker government be considered.
The main stumbling block for the coalition has been the government's determination to slash spending and introduce a range of new taxes to plug a €10 billion budget gap.
De Wever’s Flemish nationalist party is pushing for cuts in healthcare spending, while its coalition partners are calling for higher taxes. The prime minister has set himself a deadline of Tuesday to reach an agreement.
Belgium’s financial troubles have long been familiar both at home and within the European institutions. Last year, the country’s budget deficit reached 5%, well above the 3% ceiling permitted under EU rules. Public debt is also significantly above European thresholds, standing at more than €735 billion, or over 110% of Belgium’s GDP.
The lack of an agreement has further heightened tensions in financial markets, with government bond yields rising sharply. This means Belgium will have to pay more to refinance its debt.
The government has also taken aim at one of the country's environmental policies. At the beginning of the year, a road tax for electric vehicles was introduced, together with a one-off registration fee. According to the government, the green tax incentives introduced years ago have now served their purpose.
In less than a decade, the number of fully electric cars in Belgium rose from 1,390 in 2015 to 132,979 in 2024. Last year, electric vehicles accounted for 16% of all newly registered cars.
“The tax exemptions for electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles have been successful: the green transition has gained considerable momentum in recent years. At the same time, however, tax revenues have fallen sharply and funding for road infrastructure is under threat. That is why we had to intervene,” Flemish Finance Minister Ben Weyts argued.
The latest proposal in this area is the introduction of a motorway vignette. The idea is to reduce the road tax paid by Belgian residents while making foreign drivers pay for using road infrastructure that has so far been free of charge.
The government's policies have been the subject of sustained criticism ever since it took office in 2025. A series of demonstrations organised by trade unions have taken place, the latest in October. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Brussels last year to protest against the government's socio-economic policies.
The trade unions also sent a letter to De Wever expressing their opposition to the federal government's plans. They say their concerns have gone unheard. In a joint statement, the Christian, socialist and liberal trade unions said that, despite large-scale demonstrations, they had received no response from those in power. The only answer, they said, had been deafening silence.
“De Wever promised a historic reform government but delivered a historic budget crisis. Restoring budgetary discipline was the main reason for the existence of his government, yet every budget cycle turns into a search for new taxes and temporary concessions. Instead of the promised break with the past, he is offering yet another tax-heavy government. De Wever has found himself bogged down in the Belgian swamp,” said Barbara Pas, leader of the federal Vlaams Belang party.
“With the coalition agreement and the previous budget, this government has effectively shifted the main burden onto the middle class and people who are already struggling financially,” said federal MP and Green party leader Matti Vandemaele.
According to him, the wealthiest have largely escaped the impact of the measures, while climate challenges have not received the attention they deserve. There is now a risk that the same scenario will be repeated: ordinary families will once again be forced to tighten their belts, while the wealthiest remain largely untouched.
The Green party is calling for a budget that helps people improve their living standards, distributes the financial burden fairly and invests in tackling the climate crisis. An agreement is necessary, but not one that makes the same people pay the bill time and again.
PVDA chairman Raoul Hedebouw believes the budget negotiations have stalled because of public opposition to further cuts that would undermine people's purchasing power and healthcare funding.
“Energy is becoming increasingly expensive, and people are watching their purchasing power melt away. Yet this government has nothing to offer them but another bill to pay. Social discontent and public opinion are giving these plans a red card,” Hedebouw said in a statement posted on his official X account.
The far-left party has also criticised the fact that the super-rich remain beyond the reach of the proposed budget measures, while defence spending is not even being questioned. Hedebouw also directed his criticism personally at Prime Minister De Wever.
“He himself is responsible for the austerity policies and the economic problems facing this government,” the PVDA leader said.
From a Belgian budget deadlock to an EU financial headache
The political crisis, with its financial implications, could quickly spill over onto the European stage if the government does resign, leaving a political vacuum between administrations.
One of the major unresolved issues concerns the frozen Russian assets held at Euroclear, the Brussels-based securities depository. On this issue, the prime minister clashed sharply with his European counterparts late last year. During a European Council meeting, he made his position unequivocally clear:
“Let me be clear: Belgium does not want a single euro of this money to go back to Russia. But the EU is venturing into uncharted waters, and I have not received concrete answers from my colleagues. Nor have I seen any text to discuss. It is still unclear whether any of this is even legal.”
Ultimately, the issue remains unresolved, while pressure on the European Commission continues to mount. Following calls from several member states and more than 120 Members of the European Parliament, the Commission is exploring new options for structuring a reparations loan for Ukraine backed by frozen Russian reserves.
At a technical press briefing on the issue for Brussels-based correspondents, including 3eNews, Commission experts explained that one possible solution would involve transferring the Russian accounts held at the Belgian depository Euroclear to a specially established structure under the European Commission.
The proposal is still under discussion, and no concrete technical arrangements have been agreed. In any case, it would require the political support of all member states and, above all, Belgium itself.
The dispute over the Belgian depository is another example of how a potential early government resignation could leave Belgium’s EU partners in limbo.
Energy projects caught in the political crossfire
A similar situation has already occurred in the energy sector under the previous government led by Alexander De Croo.
The issue concerned Belgium’s decision to extend the operating life of the Tihange 3 and Doel 4 nuclear reactors. After nearly a year of negotiations, an agreement was eventually signed with French energy company Engie, under which the two units were to continue operating for another ten years.
Implementation of the decision was subsequently delayed because of the government's early resignation and its transition into caretaker status. In such circumstances, ministers have limited powers, while major strategic and international agreements require the backing of a fully functioning government and parliament.
As a result, it took almost a year before the position of the new De Wever government on the future of nuclear energy became clear. Ultimately, the two successive governments shared broadly similar ideas and a common vision for the development of nuclear power.
Another project, however, did not have the same fortunate outcome. This was the proposal to build a new joint nuclear power plant with the Netherlands in the border town of Borssele. The project had been set in motion by both countries, but the early resignations of their governments left it on ice. It was never revived.
If Bart De Wever’s government resigns, several other key energy projects could also be put on hold.
Among them is Belgium’s long-awaited plan to build its own artificial energy island in the North Sea. The Princess Elisabeth Island was the flagship project with which former prime minister De Croo took pride, presenting it as one of the country's strategic priorities.
His early resignation left the project without a clear development path, while De Wever said the government had other, more pressing financial priorities. As a result, the energy island was pushed into the background.
Meanwhile, grid operator Elia had completed only part of the planned work on the offshore wind development, which aims to reach a capacity of 8 GW by 2040. The remainder of the project continued to exist largely on paper.
Frozen Russian assets: another unresolved front
The Belgian government is also leaving unresolved another international dispute involving the Russian Central Bank's claims for the return of €200 billion to Russia.
The complaint was rejected, and Euroclear subsequently launched proceedings before the Brussels Enterprise Court in response to Russian court rulings.
In May, reports emerged that Russian oligarchs had filed nine claims against Belgium through arbitration proceedings, which allow for the possibility of an out-of-court settlement. The Russian Central Bank has also brought two cases before the General Court of the European Union challenging the possibility of making the frozen funds available to Ukraine.
Several Belgian media outlets have reported that assets frozen in the EU under sanctions imposed over Russia's war against Ukraine have so far generated €6.6 billion in revenue for the Belgian depository.
How damaging a potential resignation of the Belgian government could prove for the EU may become clear very soon. A special European Council meeting is scheduled for November, followed by the regular summit at the end of the year.
As always, 3eNews will be there, watching from the front row to see whether Europe is heading for a financial tsunami or merely a lull before the next storm.